Monday isn't always so bad...

The big real estate story in the news today may be the Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

As reported by the N.A.R.
"Sales of existing homes fell for the fifth consecutive month in August"

The numbers are national and include both condo's and single family homes.
David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said the drop in prices had been expected, indicating that sellers are finally starting to lower their asking prices in the face of weaker sales and soaring inventories.

I was at a wonderful seminar yesterday (see www.RobBlack.com) and was asked a number of questions that dealt with declining values.

With sales down and inventories up it's easy to see and feel the apprehension factor.
But two points to keep in mind, and this goes back to the NAR report on existing sales.

1. Condo's react very differently than the single family home. In the report nationaly condo's were down 3.5% while SFR's were reported as unchanged.

"The supply of homes for sale increased to 3.918 million, a 7.5 months supply that was the highest since April 1993, up from 7.3 months at the end of July. Resales of single-family homes were unchanged at an annual rate of 5.51 million, the report said. Sales of condos and co-ops fell 3.5 percent to a 793,000 rate.

Purchases fell 2.3 percent in the West and 0.8 percent in the South. They rose 0.7 percent in the Midwest and 1.9 percent in the Northeast."


2. We live in the Bay Area, and it's safe to say people really want to live here. Supply and demand says that even in a nationwide down market we're going to fair better than other areas that do not have the "demand".

Just something to keep in mind as national reports come out, we live in a "different world" than most. Their data may not be our data.

BTW: The 10 yr yield opened yet again lower this morning.
I have a single webpage that tracks the 10 Yr. Note during the day, the last week, the last 3 months, and the last 2 years.
You can find it here: http://www.patagoniafinance.com/bondlook.html